Record Warm Start to November

November is starting out quite hot around the Ohio Valley right after an end to the warmest October on record for Louisville, Ky! The 116 year old record was official broken as the average temperature for the whole month reached 66.2 degrees; 6.7 degrees above normal. More records are in jeopardy this month.

Two records were broken for the first of November. The all time record high for the month of November of 84 degrees set back in 1958 and the record high for November 1st of 83 set back in 1987 were both broke today. The temp at Louisville International Airport rose to 85 degrees! The heat will continue into tomorrow where another record could be broken.

Here is the set up responsible for the record heat around the region. The map below from the SPC shows a large ridge of high pressure over the south eastern United States. Record warm temps and sunny skies can be found under this ridge.

This ridge will stick around for another day before the storm system in the west approaches bringing cooler weather and the chance for storms. After another record warm afternoon on Wednesday in the low 80s, clouds will begin to increase Wednesday evening. By early Thursday morning s front will push through the region bringing a chance for rain and a few rumbles of thunder. The NAM4k below shows a forecast of the radar early Thursday morning showing scattered rain showers throughout the region.

After the front pushes through nice weather will return from Friday through the middle of next week. Temps will be a lot cooler to start out the weekend with highs struggling to reach 60 Friday. By early next week temps will be back into the lower 70s. Overall, not a bad weekend in the forecast!

Unfortunately the Ohio Valley really does need more rain. Drought conditions continue to be widespread across Kentucky and will continue to get worse if a big rain event doesn’t happen soon. As of now no big rain events are in the forecast. The map below from the US Drought Monitor shows most of the state of Kentucky in then abnormally dry category while much of South and Eastern Kentucky is in a severe drought.

Forecast:

Wednesday: Am sun, clouds increasing in the afternoon. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs nearing record levels in the low 80s.

Thursday: Am showers, pm partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40ws. Patchy frost possible in cool spots. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday: Sunny skies. Lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Patchy frost possible. Highs in the low 60s.

Sunday: Sunny skies. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday: Sunny skies. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70.

 

Warmest October on Record?

It is safe to say that 2016 has been a warm one! In fact, three months this year already have made it into the record books. March 2016 was the 8th warmest March on record since records began in Louisville in the 1870s.  This August was the 9th hottest August on record and September was the 6th hottest on record. By the look of things, October 2016 could fall into the top 3 warmest Octobers on record for the Ohio Valley. The forecast over the next week and into Halloween will feature above average temps and mostly dry conditions. We’ll break the week’s forecast down below.

Currents

Today a high pressure system way to the north and a low pressure system off to the west is putting the Ohio Valley in a great spot for some gorgeous fall weather over the next couple days. This morning started out chilly with mid to upper 30’s in many locations. Temperatures have since rebounded into the low to mid 60s in the east and upper 60s to near 70 farther west towards Bowling Green, Ky. The map below from the SPC shows the current set up.

Tomorrow 

By tomorrow, the entire region will be in a southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system that will skirt by to our north early Thursday morning. Wednesday will feel more like summer than mid fall. Temps and humidity will be on the rise. Highs everywhere should top 70. Southern and Western Kentucky may even flirt with 80!

Late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, that system to our north will push a weakening front through the region. Scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two will move through with the front. Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky stand the best chance of seeing any activity. Farther south showers and storms will be more isolated. The simulated radar below from the NAM4K model shows this well.

Unfortunately, the Ohio Valley does need the rain. The current map below from the US Drought Monitor shows a drought beginning to set in across the entire state of Kentucky. In fact, as of 10/18, 21% of the state is now in a severe drought (light brown) compared to only 6% on 10/11.

That map is a little scary,especially since there does not seem to be much relief in sight, even in the long term.

Speaking of scary, let’s talk about the Halloween forecast for everyone planning on dressing up and going trick or treating. As of now Halloween looks to be very nice with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70’s around the region with dry conditions! Keep in mind this forecast is a week out and could change. But for now, the weather looks perfect!

Here are some past Halloween weather facts for other weather nerds out there provided by the NWS Louisville.

Snowiest: Trace (flurries) in 1993, 1954, and 1930

Deepest Snow Cover: Trace in 1993 Wettest: 1.68” in 1941

Warmest Temperature: 84 in 1950

Warmest Daily Average Temperature: 71.5 in 1900

Coldest Temperature: 26 in 1887

Coldest Daily Average Temperature: 34.5 in 1925

 

Forecast: 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the mid 60’s in the east to near 70 in the west.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies. Clouds increasing later in the day. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the low to mid 70’s. Near 80 across the south.

Thursday: Early morning showers, then drying out in the afternoon. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Friday: Sunny skies. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy skies. Scattered shower possible. Lows in the low to mid 50s. Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Halloween: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s to near 70.