Unsettled Start to the Weekend

The month of September started out nice and peaceful with dry conditions and temps in the 80s. Things quickly changed as another heat wave engulfed the region with highs in the low to mid 90s earlier this week. Fortunately, cooler weather is on the way, but with a price. As a system passes by north of the region, there will be an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms now through Saturday.

Today:

The current radar as of 10:45am on 9/9/16 is shown below. Right now showers are showing up on the radar moving eastward throughout the Ohio Valley.

centgrtlakes

As the day moves on showers will move off to the east and sun will begin to peak through the clouds. The satellite image below shows breaks in the clouds across southern and western portions of Kentucky. These areas have the best chance to reach 90 later this afternoon. Temps will remain in the 70s in Northern and Central Kentucky for the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours before the clouds begin to break up. Areas that do see sun in this portion of the state will see a spike in temps well into the 80s.

090916clouds

As clouds break up later this afternoon, more storms will fire up and move through the area later this evening and into the overnight hours. These storms are expected to impact Northern and Central Kentucky and Southern Indiana. A few storms may be on the strong side with strong winds and small hail and lightning. The map below from the HRRR weather model shows the storms moving in from the west later tonight.

HRRRSAT0Z.png

 

Saturday:

Tomorrow will start out with clouds and left over showers and storms from the cluster of storms expected to move through overnight. As the morning goes on, there should be some breaks in the clouds allowing temps to warm up nicely into the low to mid 80s. The warm and humid conditions combined with a cold front passing through the region will set the stage for strong storms to develop later in the afternoon. Strong winds and hail will be the main threats. Current data shows the best chance for storms tomorrow to be along and east of I-65. Louisville could still see some storms tomorrow but areas around Frankfort, Lexington, Cincinnati, and Richmond have the best chance to get in on the action. The map below from NAM 4K model supports this by showing a line of broken storms forming tomorrow evening.

NAM4KSAT21Z.png

 

Sunday through early next week

The weather will dramatically change once the front passes through the region Saturday evening. Cooler and drier air will filter in and will be here to stay for a couple days. An area of high pressure over the Eastern US will allow for calm condition and sunny skies for everyone. Here is the forecast through Tuesday of next week.

 

Today: 80s with showers and thunderstorms. Few storms may be strong

Tonight: Temps falling into the low 70s.  Storms pushing through overnight. Few storms may be strong.

Saturday: Highs in the low to mid 80s. Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Storms along and east of I-65 later in the day. Few storms may be severe.

Saturday Night: Skies clearing out. Temps falling into the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday: Sunny skies. Highs in the upper 70s. low humidity.

Sunday Night: Clear skies. Lows in the 50s.

Monday: Sunny skies. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Low humidity.

Monday Night: Clear skies. Temps falling into the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday: Sunny skies. Getting warmer. Highs in the mid 80s.

 

 

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Relief From The Heat Coming

It has been a hot and extremely humid summer over the past couple months in the Ohio Valley and today is no different. Today marks day number 40 with high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees at Louisville international airport. The average over the past 30 years is 34 days in the 90s. Just this month 16 of the 30 days so far have been in the 90s, the hottest being on the 28th with a high of 96. Fortunately, mother nature will be giving the area a bit of relief later on this week.

Below is a map from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) showing the large ridge of high pressure sitting right over the southern states. This ridge is allowing hot and humid air to engulf much of the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

 

83016 300mb

 

By Wednesday afternoon a cold front from the north will be approaching the region giving everyone a chance for thunderstorms. Most of the storms will just be heavy rain makers with flash flooding being the primary threat. A few storms could be on the strong side with small hail and gusty winds. Most of the convection is expected to move south and east of the area after sunset making for a drier and cooler night.

The map below from Weatherbell shows the cold front over the area  Wednesday evening. Once the cold front passes through, cooler Canadian air will filter into the region bringing an end to the 90 degree heat for a while.

083016 NAM.png

This front will usher in cooler, drier air just in time for the first day of September. From Thursday on through the weekend temperatures will drop dramatically from the low to mid 90s early this week to upper 70’s to around 80 on Friday. Humidity levels will take a plunge with dew points dropping into the 50s after the front passes through. 50s dew points will make it feel more like early October rather than early September.

The next map shows cloud cover over the Eastern United States. The Canadian high pressure will inhibit clouds from forming later this week and into the weekend. zero percent chance for rain with the clear skies around.

083016 NAM cloud.png

Day by Day Forecast:

Thursday: Morning clouds clearing out.

High: 82

Low: 68

 

Friday: Sunny skies

High: 79

Low: 60

 

Saturday: Sunny skies

High: 83

Low: 59

 

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Getting warmer.

High: 87

Low: 63