It’s Finally Raining

After a very dry past few months, the Ohio Valley is finally getting a good soaking rain. The drought is not over by any means; however, at this point every drop counts. As of last week, almost the entire state of Kentucky was in a severe drought. Extreme drought conditions are even showing up in southern portions of the state. It has been quite sometime since this area has been in a drought of this intensity and it’s going to take multiple storm systems like this one to put a dent in it.

The map below from the US Drought Monitor shows the extent of the drought in Kentucky.

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So far today 1-2″ of rain has fallen across Western and Central Kentucky and Indiana. Tomorrow night more rain is in the forecast across the eastern portions of Kentucky, where the drought is the worst.

The current radar below from the National Weather Service shows rain engulfing much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This rain will move eastward through the night giving way to much drier conditions during the day on Tuesday.

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Tuesday for the most part will be a very nice day across the region with southerly winds and temps well into the 60s. Unfortunately, the nice weather won’t last long as the main cold front will move though late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing with it colder air and more rain. The map below is from the NAM4K model showing rain along and east of the I-65 corridor tomorrow night. This area has the best chance of getting a good soaking rain. Areas west of I-65, especially in Indiana will be much drier and could escape the rain completely.

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Once the front clears the region early Wednesday morning, much drier air will move in allowing clouds to begin to break. The cold air will be lagging behind a bit which means Wednesday afternoon may turn out very nice with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. The cold air will reach the Ohio Valley Wednesday night allowing temps to fall into the 20s for lows and 40s for highs the rest of the week.

Weekend and Next Week

The weekend looks to start out cold and dry; however, some weather models are showing a southern storm system that could impact the region sometime Sunday and into early next week. Right now none of the models for this time period agree on what will happen as some show dry, sunny weather and some show rain. This will be an interesting system to watch over the next couple of days. More updates to come as the weekend gets closer.

 

Forecast

Tuesday: partly cloudy skies. Rain developing late. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday: morning rain moving east throughout the day. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday: mostly sunny skies. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Friday: mostly sunny skies. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday: partly cloudy skies. Lows in the mid 20s to near 30. Highs in the mid 40s.

Sunday: mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Lows in the low to mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s.

Monday: mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s.

 

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Drought Conditions Continue

Fall 2016 has featured nothing but extremes; record setting temps in October and now bone dry conditions in November. The warm, dry weather looks to continue through the rest of the week with a chance for some much needed rain Friday night.

Here is a look at a few maps from the US Drought Monitor showing almost all of Kentucky experiencing drought conditions and even parts of Southern Indiana.

  • Yellow: Abnormally Dry
  • Light Brown: Moderate Drought
  • Orange: Severe Drought

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Overall the weather this past week has been typical of Mid-November with cold frosty mornings and mild afternoons. This week will be even warmer with temperatures nearing record territory again by Friday. The map below from the SPC shows a trough of low pressure over the Eastern US while a ridge of high pressure is over the West. This ridge will move over the Ohio Valley during the next couple days allowing warmer air to engulf the region. On  top of the warmer temps, winds will be on the gusty side creating perfect conditions for fire weather Thursday and Friday. The local National Weather Service Websites will give more information on where and when burn bans will be in place.

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By Friday Night a cold front will pass through the region bringing an end to the short Indian Summer. Strong scattered thunderstorms are not out of the question Friday night, especially in Western Kentucky and Indiana. The rain will be much needed though.This will not eradicate drought conditions; however every little bit of rain helps and will temporarily reduce wild fire dangers. After the front passes through, the bottom drops out as high temps will plummet into the 40s/low50s for the weekend and into early next week! Enjoy the warm weather while it’s here.

 

Forecast

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies early, clearing out late.Highs in the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Thursday: Sunny skies. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Isolated storms later in the evening. Lows in the low 50s. Highs nearing record territory in thee low to mid 70s.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated shower possible. Temps in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Cold. Hard freeze likely. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Monday: Sunny skies. Cold. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Leaves aren’t the only thing falling

It’s election day! So go out and vote! But before heading out the door make sure to bring a light jacket and an umbrella as showers will be moving through the region for the rest of the day.

Unfortunately, the cooler weather is here to stay. The first week of November started out with record warmth; however the leaves won’t be the only thing falling over the next week. The forecast calls for the coolest temperatures of the season so far. That isn’t saying much as the “cold” air will drop temps down to around where they should be for this time of year. Let’s take a look at the set up for the next week.

Today

Currently a cold front stretching from Canada all the way down to Missouri is making its way through Indiana. This front is the reason for the rain today. After the front pushes through the region, high pressure will take over drying things out for the next week. The map below from the SPC shows the front moving through the area with a large area of high pressure behind it.

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This map below from Weather Underground shows rain moving through the area.The first batch of rain in Kentucky is mainly light rain and should not cause too many issues. The main band of rain in Indiana will slowly sag south and eastward throughout the day. This band is where the steadier rain is located and could cause slow delays around rush hour.

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Wednesday – Weekend

Once the front pushes through high pressure will take over bringing with it drier but cooler weather. The map below from Pivotal Weather shows the GFS forecast for Saturday. A high pressure system right over the Ohio Valley means skies will be clear, winds will be calm and the atmosphere will be very dry. This set up will cause temps to drop below freezing in the mornings for almost everyone for the first time this season. Highs will be pretty chilly too struggling to reach 60 this weekend.

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Another major story this fall is the drought conditions. These little rain events once a week are not doing much to help the ongoing drought across the Ohio Valley. The recent update from the US Drought Monitor (map below) shows over 81 percent of the state of Kentucky in a moderate drought compared to only 24 percent on October 25th. With dry conditions in the forecast and drought conditions becoming worse, wildfires may become an issue. Be careful when burning leaves this fall as fires will be able to spread easier and faster with all of the dry vegetation around.

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Forecast

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Temps in the 60s.

Wednesday: Skies clearing. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

Thursday: Sunny skies. Morning frost possible. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. Highs in the low to mid 60s.

Friday: Sunny skies. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the low 60s.

Saturday: Sunny skies. Lows in the low to mid 30s. Widespread frost and freezing conditions possible. Cool. Highs in the mid 50s.

Sunday: Sunny Skies. Hard Freeze possible. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Monday: Sunny. Lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Highs in the low 60s.

 

Record Warm Start to November

November is starting out quite hot around the Ohio Valley right after an end to the warmest October on record for Louisville, Ky! The 116 year old record was official broken as the average temperature for the whole month reached 66.2 degrees; 6.7 degrees above normal. More records are in jeopardy this month.

Two records were broken for the first of November. The all time record high for the month of November of 84 degrees set back in 1958 and the record high for November 1st of 83 set back in 1987 were both broke today. The temp at Louisville International Airport rose to 85 degrees! The heat will continue into tomorrow where another record could be broken.

Here is the set up responsible for the record heat around the region. The map below from the SPC shows a large ridge of high pressure over the south eastern United States. Record warm temps and sunny skies can be found under this ridge.

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This ridge will stick around for another day before the storm system in the west approaches bringing cooler weather and the chance for storms. After another record warm afternoon on Wednesday in the low 80s, clouds will begin to increase Wednesday evening. By early Thursday morning s front will push through the region bringing a chance for rain and a few rumbles of thunder. The NAM4k below shows a forecast of the radar early Thursday morning showing scattered rain showers throughout the region.

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After the front pushes through nice weather will return from Friday through the middle of next week. Temps will be a lot cooler to start out the weekend with highs struggling to reach 60 Friday. By early next week temps will be back into the lower 70s. Overall, not a bad weekend in the forecast!

Unfortunately the Ohio Valley really does need more rain. Drought conditions continue to be widespread across Kentucky and will continue to get worse if a big rain event doesn’t happen soon. As of now no big rain events are in the forecast. The map below from the US Drought Monitor shows most of the state of Kentucky in then abnormally dry category while much of South and Eastern Kentucky is in a severe drought.

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Forecast:

Wednesday: Am sun, clouds increasing in the afternoon. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs nearing record levels in the low 80s.

Thursday: Am showers, pm partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40ws. Patchy frost possible in cool spots. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday: Sunny skies. Lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Patchy frost possible. Highs in the low 60s.

Sunday: Sunny skies. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday: Sunny skies. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s to near 70.