Mother Nature does not want to let go of summer. After one of the warmest Septembers on record, October is shaping up to be another record warm month as well. Unfortunately for everyone enjoys the warm weather, a cool down is in the forecast. The near record setting heat will be coming to an end soon as a front moves through the area tomorrow. Lets break down the set up for this week.
Today through Thursday
The map below from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows the set up for today. A system well to our north has a cold front extended south and west from it. The Ohio Valley is south of that front which means today we will have more hot, summer-like temps, southerly winds, and dry conditions. But as that front pushes closer to the area tomorrow, temps will drop and rain chances will increase.
On Wednesday, that front will head southward and stall over the region. This stalled out front will cause an increase in clouds later tonight and into the day tomorrow.
Southern Indiana has the best chance of seeing more clouds and scattered showers and storms tonight and tomorrow as they are closer to the front. The whole day should not be a washout though. Temps for Indiana should be in the mid to upper 70s for highs Wednesday.
Isolated showers and storms are possible in Kentucky on Wednesday, but less wide spread than in Southern Indiana. More sun will be found in Southern Kentucky where temps should rise well into the 80s again. Northern Kentucky should expect temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Not only will the chance for showers increase over the next 48 hours, but the chance for strong storms with wind gusts over 58mph and small hail. The SPC has the Ohio Valley in a marginal risk (5%) for severe storms as shown in the map below. Most storms will stay below severe limits; however a few may be on the strong to severe side. Overall, not a huge concern. The best chance for severe weather will be to the west in Missouri and Arkansas. The rain and cooler temps will be the main focus for this region.
By Wednesday night a low pressure system will form along the front and ride up it. This low will bring an increase of showers and storms late Wednesday night through Thursday to much of the Ohio Valley. The map below from Pivotal Weather shows a forecast of the radar Thursday Morning from the NAM (North American Model). Don’t focus on too much of the details. Notice that most of Indiana will get on the heavier rain and storms early Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours as the low pressure system rides up the front stalled out over the region. Kentucky will get showers and storms Thursday, just not as widespread as what Indiana will see.
Since the storms may not be as widespread across Kentucky on Thursday, temps will be warmer and the sun may even break out in places. This may increase the chance for scattered strong to severe storms for Central and Eastern Kentucky. This should not be a big severe weather event as the SPC only has this area in a marginal risk(5%) for severe weather. However, a few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. The map below shows the areas outlined in a marginal risk for severe storms. Indiana should not see as high of a risk for severe storms as conditions will not be conducive for them to form with the widespread rain around.
Although the severe weather is not wanted by many, the Ohio Valley does need the rain. Much of Kentucky has been abnormally dry over the past couple months. Some parts of Kentucky are even in a severe drought now. The map below from the US Drought Monitor shows the areas that have been particularly dry as of late. The Yellow is abnormally dry while the light brown signifies a severe drought.
Friday through next week
After the rain moves out of the area Thursday afternoon and evening, skies will clear and make way for a gorgeous fall weekend ahead! Highs in the low to mid 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s are expected for the weekend. Right where temps should be for this time of year. By the end of the weekend and the start of next week temps should rebound nicely back into the 70s. So lets just get through these next couple days of wet weather and then everyone can enjoy the cool, fall air!
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Becoming widespread late in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s in the north and low to mid 80s across Kentucky. Lows in the upper 60s to near 70.
Thursday: Cloudy. Widespread showers and storms early in the day. Temps steady in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Friday: Skies beginning to clear. Highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows in the low to mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to near 50.