Warmest October on Record?

It is safe to say that 2016 has been a warm one! In fact, three months this year already have made it into the record books. March 2016 was the 8th warmest March on record since records began in Louisville in the 1870s.  This August was the 9th hottest August on record and September was the 6th hottest on record. By the look of things, October 2016 could fall into the top 3 warmest Octobers on record for the Ohio Valley. The forecast over the next week and into Halloween will feature above average temps and mostly dry conditions. We’ll break the week’s forecast down below.

Currents

Today a high pressure system way to the north and a low pressure system off to the west is putting the Ohio Valley in a great spot for some gorgeous fall weather over the next couple days. This morning started out chilly with mid to upper 30’s in many locations. Temperatures have since rebounded into the low to mid 60s in the east and upper 60s to near 70 farther west towards Bowling Green, Ky. The map below from the SPC shows the current set up.

pmsl

Tomorrow 

By tomorrow, the entire region will be in a southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system that will skirt by to our north early Thursday morning. Wednesday will feel more like summer than mid fall. Temps and humidity will be on the rise. Highs everywhere should top 70. Southern and Western Kentucky may even flirt with 80!

Late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, that system to our north will push a weakening front through the region. Scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two will move through with the front. Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky stand the best chance of seeing any activity. Farther south showers and storms will be more isolated. The simulated radar below from the NAM4K model shows this well.

nam4k.png

Unfortunately, the Ohio Valley does need the rain. The current map below from the US Drought Monitor shows a drought beginning to set in across the entire state of Kentucky. In fact, as of 10/18, 21% of the state is now in a severe drought (light brown) compared to only 6% on 10/11.

us-drought-101816

That map is a little scary,especially since there does not seem to be much relief in sight, even in the long term.

Speaking of scary, let’s talk about the Halloween forecast for everyone planning on dressing up and going trick or treating. As of now Halloween looks to be very nice with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70’s around the region with dry conditions! Keep in mind this forecast is a week out and could change. But for now, the weather looks perfect!

Here are some past Halloween weather facts for other weather nerds out there provided by the NWS Louisville.

Snowiest: Trace (flurries) in 1993, 1954, and 1930

Deepest Snow Cover: Trace in 1993 Wettest: 1.68” in 1941

Warmest Temperature: 84 in 1950

Warmest Daily Average Temperature: 71.5 in 1900

Coldest Temperature: 26 in 1887

Coldest Daily Average Temperature: 34.5 in 1925

 

Forecast: 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the mid 60’s in the east to near 70 in the west.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies. Clouds increasing later in the day. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the low to mid 70’s. Near 80 across the south.

Thursday: Early morning showers, then drying out in the afternoon. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Friday: Sunny skies. Lows in the low to mid 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy skies. Scattered shower possible. Lows in the low to mid 50s. Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Halloween: Mostly sunny skies. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Highs in the mid to upper 60s to near 70.

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Big Cool Down Coming

Mother Nature does not want to let go of summer. After one of the warmest Septembers on record, October is shaping up to be another record warm month as well. Unfortunately for everyone enjoys the warm weather, a cool down is in the forecast. The near record setting heat will be coming to an end soon as a front moves through the area tomorrow. Lets break down the set up for this week.

Today through Thursday

The map below from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows the set up for today. A system well to our north has a cold front extended south and west from it. The Ohio Valley is south of that front which means today we will have more hot, summer-like temps, southerly winds, and dry conditions. But as that front pushes closer to the area tomorrow, temps will drop and rain chances will increase.

pmsl101816

On Wednesday, that front will head southward and stall over the region. This stalled out front will cause an increase in clouds later tonight and into the day tomorrow.

Southern Indiana has the best chance of seeing more clouds and scattered showers and storms tonight and tomorrow as they are closer to the front. The whole day should not be a washout though. Temps for Indiana should be in the mid to upper 70s for highs Wednesday.

Isolated showers and storms are possible in Kentucky on Wednesday, but less wide spread than in Southern Indiana. More sun will be found in Southern Kentucky where temps should rise well into the 80s again. Northern Kentucky should expect temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Not only will the chance for showers increase over the next 48 hours, but the chance for strong storms with wind gusts over 58mph and small hail. The SPC has the Ohio Valley in a marginal risk (5%) for severe storms as shown in the map below. Most storms will stay below severe limits; however a few may be on the strong to severe side. Overall, not a huge concern. The best chance for severe weather will be to the west in Missouri and Arkansas. The rain and cooler temps will be the main focus for this region.

spc101916

By Wednesday night a low pressure system will form along the front and ride up it. This low will bring an increase of showers and storms late Wednesday night through Thursday to much of the Ohio Valley. The map below from Pivotal Weather shows a forecast of the radar Thursday Morning from the NAM (North American Model). Don’t focus on too much of the details. Notice that most of Indiana will get on the heavier rain and storms early Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours as the low pressure system rides up the front stalled out over the region. Kentucky will get showers and storms Thursday, just not as widespread as what Indiana will see.

refcmp.us_ov.png

Since the storms may not be as widespread across Kentucky on Thursday, temps will be warmer and the sun may even break out in places. This may increase the chance for scattered strong to severe storms for Central and Eastern Kentucky. This should not be a big severe weather event as the SPC only has this area in a marginal risk(5%) for severe weather. However, a few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. The map below shows the areas outlined in a marginal risk for severe storms. Indiana should not see as high of a risk for severe storms as conditions will not be conducive for them to form with the widespread rain around.

spc102016

Although the severe weather is not wanted by many, the Ohio Valley does need the rain. Much of Kentucky has been abnormally dry over the past couple months. Some parts of Kentucky are even in a severe drought now. The map below from the US Drought Monitor shows the areas that have been particularly dry as of late. The Yellow is abnormally dry while the light brown signifies a severe drought.

101116-drought

Friday through next week

After the rain moves out of the area Thursday afternoon and evening, skies will clear and make way for a gorgeous fall weekend ahead! Highs in the low to mid 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s are expected for the weekend. Right where temps should be for this time of year. By the end of the weekend and the start of next week temps should rebound nicely back into the 70s. So lets just get through these next couple days of wet weather and then everyone can enjoy the cool, fall air!

 

Forecast:

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs in the mid 80s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Becoming widespread late in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s in the north and low to mid 80s across Kentucky. Lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

Thursday: Cloudy. Widespread showers and storms early in the day. Temps steady in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Friday: Skies beginning to clear. Highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows in the low to mid 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the mid 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to near 50.

Typical Fall Pattern

Good Tuesday Afternoon across the Ohio Valley. The weather to start out this month has been quite warm with multiple days in the 80s and sunny skies. Fortunately, more warm days are in the forecast, but remember as we head into fall a more up and down weather pattern will take over. This week the Ohio Valley will see small ups and downs with temps fluctuating between the 60s and 80s day to day with small rain chances, but overall nothing too crazy.

Tuesday through Wednesday

A system to the northwest will push a cold front through the region later Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Ahead of this front temps will rise into the upper 70s to near 80 under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase later in the day Wednesday as the cold front approaches. The map below from the SPC shows the current set up.

101116

Thursday through Friday

The cold front is forecast to push through early Thursday morning will bring a chance for showers for everyone across the region. A rumble of thunder or two is possible but for the most part this should just be a light rain event. The forecast map below from the NAM4K model shows rain moving through the region a little after midnight.

refcmp.us_ov.png

As for temperatures, get ready for a taste of fall! Highs behind the front both Thursday and Friday will get up only into the mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. Make sure to grab the jacket Friday morning as some spots outside of the major cities may drop down into the upper 30s for the first time this season!

The Weekend

The forecast for the weekend is a little iffy as all of the weather data  from the different models do not agree on exactly what will happen.

For now the Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend. Southerly winds will return allowing temps to rise well into the 70s for everyone. Skies should be partly cloudy as a weak system will pass by to the south increasing clouds and moisture in the area.

Sunday a front pushes through during the day. Models still disagree what time the front and showers push through. If the rain holds off until later in the day, Sunday may turn out to be very nice with temperatures rising near 80. But if the rain comes earlier in the day, temps may not make it much above 70. Over the next couple days as the weather models begin to agree on timing, the forecast will become clearer.

 

Forecast: 

Tuesday: Am clouds, Pm sun. Highs in the mid to upper 70s to near 80.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies. Rain moving in after sunset. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs near 80.

Thursday: Am showers. Clouds clearing out in the afternoon. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies. Patchy frost in some areas in the morning. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Isolated morning showers in southern Kentucky. Lows in the upper 40s to near 50. Highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Highs in the 70s.