Welcome to Fall

Fall is finally here! Although the first day of fall was five days ago, Mother Nature held onto the hot summer heat until yesterday. The last blog  post talked about the record heat the Ohio Valley has seen this September so far. Fortunately the record summer heat is over with and cooler, fall weather is here to stay. But first lets see how September is going to go down in the record books so far.

Sept 1st – 25th Average Temp: 78.0 F

Record Average Temp for Sept in Louisville: 77.5 F

Number of days at or above 90 F: 13

As of Sunday, September 2016 is the hottest September on record. However, the cooler weather expected for the last week of the month could change that. And when I say cooler, I mean COOLELR!! Time to bring out the light jacket!

On Monday, a cold front came through bringing everyone a good amount of rain as well as cooler temps. These cooler temps are here to stay but unfortunately the sunny, dry weather is not. Lets break this week down.

The Week Ahead

Currently there is a large high pressure system over the western U.S. bringing dry, sunny weather to much of the country. However, there is also a large area of low pressure over Lake Superior that is bringing cool, cloudy, and wet weather to the Great Lakes region as shown in the map below from the Storm Prediction Center. Today will be the nicest day of the week with sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s for everyone. This will quickly change.

pmsl

This low will slowly move southward toward the Ohio Valley and just park itself here for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Unfortunately for us, this means cooler weather, cloudy skies, and the chance for more rain. Definitely a big change from the rest of the month!

The map below is the NAM’s (North American Model) prediction on the placement of this low pressure for Thursday. Even though this map just shows Thursday’s set up, the low will just sit and spin over the region all week. The set up each day should look a lot like this.

nam092716

So What does this map mean? Well weather right under low pressure systems is usually characterized by cool, cloudy, dreary, and wet weather. Clouds will be around for much of the week along with scattered rain showers. Not everyday will be a washout at all. Some areas may see breaks in the clouds and some sun while others may see more clouds and showers. Most areas should get a mix of those two scenarios throughout the week. Any sun will cause an increase in showers as that will help provide the lift and energy for them to form.

As for temperatures this week, they will be much cooler than what this area has seen. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be common across the Ohio Valley. Areas that see breaks in the clouds could jump into the mid 70s fast while areas that see more showers may remain in the low 60s!  Not the best forecast for the week but it certainly could be worse.

Forecast

Today: Sunny skies. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight: Clouds increasing. Temps dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies. Showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy skies. Showers possible. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.

Sunday: Low begins to move out of the region. Partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.

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