Welcome to Fall

Fall is finally here! Although the first day of fall was five days ago, Mother Nature held onto the hot summer heat until yesterday. The last blog  post talked about the record heat the Ohio Valley has seen this September so far. Fortunately the record summer heat is over with and cooler, fall weather is here to stay. But first lets see how September is going to go down in the record books so far.

Sept 1st – 25th Average Temp: 78.0 F

Record Average Temp for Sept in Louisville: 77.5 F

Number of days at or above 90 F: 13

As of Sunday, September 2016 is the hottest September on record. However, the cooler weather expected for the last week of the month could change that. And when I say cooler, I mean COOLELR!! Time to bring out the light jacket!

On Monday, a cold front came through bringing everyone a good amount of rain as well as cooler temps. These cooler temps are here to stay but unfortunately the sunny, dry weather is not. Lets break this week down.

The Week Ahead

Currently there is a large high pressure system over the western U.S. bringing dry, sunny weather to much of the country. However, there is also a large area of low pressure over Lake Superior that is bringing cool, cloudy, and wet weather to the Great Lakes region as shown in the map below from the Storm Prediction Center. Today will be the nicest day of the week with sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s for everyone. This will quickly change.

pmsl

This low will slowly move southward toward the Ohio Valley and just park itself here for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Unfortunately for us, this means cooler weather, cloudy skies, and the chance for more rain. Definitely a big change from the rest of the month!

The map below is the NAM’s (North American Model) prediction on the placement of this low pressure for Thursday. Even though this map just shows Thursday’s set up, the low will just sit and spin over the region all week. The set up each day should look a lot like this.

nam092716

So What does this map mean? Well weather right under low pressure systems is usually characterized by cool, cloudy, dreary, and wet weather. Clouds will be around for much of the week along with scattered rain showers. Not everyday will be a washout at all. Some areas may see breaks in the clouds and some sun while others may see more clouds and showers. Most areas should get a mix of those two scenarios throughout the week. Any sun will cause an increase in showers as that will help provide the lift and energy for them to form.

As for temperatures this week, they will be much cooler than what this area has seen. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be common across the Ohio Valley. Areas that see breaks in the clouds could jump into the mid 70s fast while areas that see more showers may remain in the low 60s!  Not the best forecast for the week but it certainly could be worse.

Forecast

Today: Sunny skies. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight: Clouds increasing. Temps dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies. Showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy skies. Showers possible. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.

Sunday: Low begins to move out of the region. Partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows in the mid 50s.

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The Summer That Never Ends

Good Tuesday Afternoon everyone. Mother Nature is a little confused right now as she does not know what month it is. If you take a step outside you will see that is surely does not feel like mid-September but rather mid-July! Fortunately, it has been a dry heat as humidity values have not been terrible. However, numerous days in the 90s in September is something this area has not seen since 2010 where there were 14 days at or above 90 degrees recorded at Louisville International Airport. This September there have already been 7 days at or above 90. Also keep in mind 2010 had one of the hottest summers on record for the Ohio Valley. This September definitely has the potential to be one of the hottest on record. So how does the rest of the month look? HOT!

Rest of the Week:

The forecast for the rest of the week is going to remain pretty much the same day to day because of a blocking area high pressure keeping any chance for rain well to the north. The map below from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows this well.

092016-300mb-set-up2

The  center of the high pressure system over Texas will slowly shift eastward as the storm system over California slowly pushes east as well. These systems will be moving extremely slow! That high will be over the Ohio Valley and Southeastern United States until next Tuesday! So for now, expect hot, dry, and sunny weather.

The map below from Pivotal Weather shows the GFS’s forecast for Thursdays highs around the Ohio Valley. For the most part, this forecast will be the same for much of the week. Upper 80’s and low 90’s for everyone.

092216-highs

With all of this hot and dry weather, another issue that comes to mind is drought! Currently Louisville and Lexington have only received about 0.65″ of rain this month which is  about 1.20″ below normal. With no rain in the forecast for the next week the ground is going to become very dry! Make sure to be watering the plants and the yard often this week.

The map below from the US Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions popping up in Southern Kentucky. For the most part, drought conditions have not set in across the area. Keep in mind this map is updated once a week and this map is from five days ago. The next two updates will most likely show more areas in the abnormally dry category.

091516-ky-drought

Forecast:

Today: Sunny Skies. Mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday: Sunny Skies. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

Thursday: Sunny Skies. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Friday: Sunny Skies. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the low 90s.

Saturday: Mostly Sunny Skies. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the low 90s.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny Skies. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

Monday: Partly Cloudy Skies. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 80s.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy Skies. Slight Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

 

 

Quiet For Now; Changes Coming

Good Tuesday afternoon, today is shaping up to be another hot day across the Ohio Valley. Mother Nature apparently has not realized it is September yet. Temps over the past couple of days have made it feel more like the middle of summer! Fortunately, for the rest of this week, temps should stay below that 90 degree mark as we will have a few chances for storms Wednesday and then again this weekend. Let’s break down the set up for this week.

Today and Tomorrow

The map below from the Storm Prediction Center shows the current weather pattern across the country. The Ohio Valley right now is sitting in between  an area of high pressure to our east and an area of low pressure to the northwest. The high pressure is responsible for the gorgeous weather today. Sunny skies and temps reaching the mid to upper 80s are expected for the rest of the afternoon.

current-conditions

That low will pass by to our north during the day on Wednesday. Fortunately the system is moisture starved and will not produce widespread storms. As the low pushes a front through the region, clouds will increase a little bit and isolated storms will develop. Southern and Central Indiana and areas near the Ohio River in Kentucky stand the best chance to see a pop up storm tomorrow afternoon. These storms are not expected to be too strong or severe. Temps will once again be in the mid to upper 80s with rising humidity values ahead of the front. It will definitely feel like the middle of summer tomorrow.

Thursday through the weekend

After the front pushes through on Wednesday a little drier air will filter into the region. Skies will remain partly cloudy throughout the day on Thursday and temps will rise once again into the low to mid 80s.

The humidity returns Friday as southwest winds ahead of the next weather system kick up. Party cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s with rising humidity levels will characterize the weather that day. The dry conditions will not last long as rain will move into the region later on Friday night and into the day on Saturday.

As a low pushes by to the north of the region on Saturday a front will slowly push its way eastward toward the Ohio Valley. This system has a lot more moisture to work with than the system for this Wednesday. Thunderstorms, a few on the strong side, will be in the area for a good portion of the day Saturday. The map below from the College of DuPage shows the set up with a cold front draped across the country Saturday evening with plenty of showers and storms.

091716setup

The rain should come in two waves this weekend. The first wave of storms will come on Friday night and early Saturday morning. Scattered storms will then be in the area during the day. The second wave should come as the front passes though Saturday night. The storms during the day on Saturday and with the second wave have the potential to be strong producing heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and  lightning. Temps will be tricky on Saturday as it all depends on how widespread the storms are. Areas that see more clouds and storms probably will stay in the 70s all day while areas that see any amount of sun will quickly rise into the 80s.

Overall, not a bad week ahead. This upcoming weekend will not be a complete washout, but make sure to keep the umbrella handy.

Forecast

Tuesday: Highs in the upper 80s. Sunny Skies

Wednesday: Highs in the mid to upper 80s; lows in the mid 60s. Partly cloudy skies with scattered storms.

Thursday: Highs in the low to mid 80s; lows in the mid 60s. Partly cloudy skies.

Friday: Highs in the mid to upper 80s;  lows in the mid to upper 60s. Getting Humid. Partly cloudy skies. Rain/storm chances going up after sunset.

Saturday: Highs in upper 70s to mid 80s; lows in the low 70s. Thunderstorms. A few may be strong.

 

 

Unsettled Start to the Weekend

The month of September started out nice and peaceful with dry conditions and temps in the 80s. Things quickly changed as another heat wave engulfed the region with highs in the low to mid 90s earlier this week. Fortunately, cooler weather is on the way, but with a price. As a system passes by north of the region, there will be an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms now through Saturday.

Today:

The current radar as of 10:45am on 9/9/16 is shown below. Right now showers are showing up on the radar moving eastward throughout the Ohio Valley.

centgrtlakes

As the day moves on showers will move off to the east and sun will begin to peak through the clouds. The satellite image below shows breaks in the clouds across southern and western portions of Kentucky. These areas have the best chance to reach 90 later this afternoon. Temps will remain in the 70s in Northern and Central Kentucky for the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours before the clouds begin to break up. Areas that do see sun in this portion of the state will see a spike in temps well into the 80s.

090916clouds

As clouds break up later this afternoon, more storms will fire up and move through the area later this evening and into the overnight hours. These storms are expected to impact Northern and Central Kentucky and Southern Indiana. A few storms may be on the strong side with strong winds and small hail and lightning. The map below from the HRRR weather model shows the storms moving in from the west later tonight.

HRRRSAT0Z.png

 

Saturday:

Tomorrow will start out with clouds and left over showers and storms from the cluster of storms expected to move through overnight. As the morning goes on, there should be some breaks in the clouds allowing temps to warm up nicely into the low to mid 80s. The warm and humid conditions combined with a cold front passing through the region will set the stage for strong storms to develop later in the afternoon. Strong winds and hail will be the main threats. Current data shows the best chance for storms tomorrow to be along and east of I-65. Louisville could still see some storms tomorrow but areas around Frankfort, Lexington, Cincinnati, and Richmond have the best chance to get in on the action. The map below from NAM 4K model supports this by showing a line of broken storms forming tomorrow evening.

NAM4KSAT21Z.png

 

Sunday through early next week

The weather will dramatically change once the front passes through the region Saturday evening. Cooler and drier air will filter in and will be here to stay for a couple days. An area of high pressure over the Eastern US will allow for calm condition and sunny skies for everyone. Here is the forecast through Tuesday of next week.

 

Today: 80s with showers and thunderstorms. Few storms may be strong

Tonight: Temps falling into the low 70s.  Storms pushing through overnight. Few storms may be strong.

Saturday: Highs in the low to mid 80s. Humid. Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Storms along and east of I-65 later in the day. Few storms may be severe.

Saturday Night: Skies clearing out. Temps falling into the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday: Sunny skies. Highs in the upper 70s. low humidity.

Sunday Night: Clear skies. Lows in the 50s.

Monday: Sunny skies. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Low humidity.

Monday Night: Clear skies. Temps falling into the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday: Sunny skies. Getting warmer. Highs in the mid 80s.